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Top 5 Predictions for 2010

Posted by anonymous on December 31, 2009 at 12:20 AM
DISCLAIMER: These are all wild guesses and some tongue firmly in cheek predictions. These are not based on any factual information other than my own edumacated guesses.


1. (NASDAQ: FBOK, BOOK, FRND, POKE or ZUCK)

Facebook files to go public in first half of 2010 to raise at least $2 billion after hitting $1.2-$1.5 billion revenue run rate. Facebook goes public in second half of 2010 (between April and September 2010) at $20-25 billion market capitalization. Nasdaq ticker symbol might be FBOK or BOOK (FACE is taken) although I think FRND, POKE or ZUCK would be cute. Facebook millionaires from vintage years 2004-2007 era go traveling around the world, starting/funding charities and starting new cool companies.  IPO propels David Kirkpatrick's book The Facebook Effect to the best sellers list- yet another example of the Facebook effect.

2. Activision Blizzynga

Zynga hits $750-$900m run rate by year end 2010. Files to go public by end of 2010.  Friendship between Kotick and Pincus leads to Zynga getting bought by Activision Blizzard (ATVI) (Blizzynga!) for $4-5 billion stock/cash deal in December 2010. Reduced virality of web-based social gaming on platforms such as Facebook and increasing ad rates help make it clear this was a great result for the company versus an IPO.  Mark Pincus buys a bigger jet to supplement his cool Micro-Jet. Pincus stays on at Activision and gets groomed to be the next CEO or he becomes a VC at a top firm like Kleiner Perkins. 

3. NASDAQ: LINK, LNKD or REID?

LinkedIn files to public by years end. I would expect LinkedIN to raise at least $800-$1 billion at a minimum $4-$5 billion market capitalization and hitting a run rate of at least $750m by end of 2010. Look for Linkedin to make a huge acquisition in the space

4. Apple-Google Mobile Wars Heat Up

iPhone continues its incredible march across the planet crossing 100 million active units. Android with Nexus One leading the charge begins to become a serious contender to iPhone with a thriving App Economy and breaks 30+ million active units.  Apple and Google go on spending sprees acquiring companies (see Admob and Lala as prototypes). Expect Apple to acquire a competing mobile ad network like Millenial Media or similar company. Both companies double marketing dollars to push their competing mobile solutions and both launch Tablets that break 10 million units by year end. 

5. Mobile Social Gaming is the new Hotness

The Mobile Social Gaming space on iPhone and Android becomes as hot as Web-Based Social Gaming Space was in 2009. SGN, Tapulous and  NGMOCO become the Zynga, Playfish and Playdom's of the space. Fueled by Apple iPhone and Android growth and free-to-play models, Mobile Social Gaming marketplace hits hundreds of millions. Due to ever increasing quality and ever present nature of Mobile Social Gaming, the space begins to gain more momentum, profits and engagement than its predecessor, Web-Based Social Gaming. [Disclosure: I am the founder of SGN so I am a obviously biased here and have a vested interest in a thriving Mobile Social Gaming ecosystem!]. 

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33 Comments

Reply ferry
05:02 AM on February 07, 2010 
ha ha
Reply Orirtygrazy
01:19 AM on February 12, 2010 
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Reply jkovats
08:50 PM on March 09, 2010 
I think the time frame on the top 3 going public are off...but your are correct on the dollar value.
Reply Financial8
08:23 PM on March 14, 2010 
Great predictions. I really had to laugh about no 1. But where's Twitter? I guess that would be TOO predictable, huh? No 4 and 5 are actually not far off IMO.
Reply Alice havelock
01:38 AM on March 15, 2010 
Hi...Impatient to look at much more of your stories, thankx ;)
Reply amess jonson
06:58 AM on March 18, 2010 
According to me, Mobile is the technique for human policy. Mobile Social gaming marketplace hits hundreds of milloind. Due to ever increasinf quality and ever present nature of mobile scial gaming, the space web based social gaming.
http://www.articlesbase.com/health-articles/alta-white-teeth-whit
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Reply amess jonson
06:58 AM on March 18, 2010 
According to me, Mobile is the technique for human policy. Mobile Social gaming marketplace hits hundreds of milloind. Due to ever increasinf quality and ever present nature of mobile scial gaming, the space web based social gaming.
http://www.articlesbase.com/health-articles/alta-white-teeth-whit
ening-review-does-alta-white-work-1989826.html
Reply amess jonson
06:58 AM on March 18, 2010 
According to me, Mobile is the technique for human policy. Mobile Social gaming marketplace hits hundreds of milloind. Due to ever increasinf quality and ever present nature of mobile scial gaming, the space web based social gaming.
http://www.articlesbase.com/health-articles/alta-white-teeth-whit
ening-review-does-alta-white-work-1989826.html
Reply ramosraymond54
08:49 AM on March 21, 2010 
Very good information on hand! I wish I had the mullah to invest on your 'edumacated guesses.'. he he! Please keep us posted though!
Reply Jehnsenn
10:20 AM on March 23, 2010 
thanks for the information.
Reply alexiathomewmon
04:07 AM on April 02, 2010 
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Reply Robert Summers
12:03 AM on April 10, 2010 
I agree with your predictions they seem inevitable Here's a couple more. Google will bury Microsoft in a cloud. Los Angeles will have an increasing number of foreclosures and some people will make a lot of money from it.